Brexit vote: absolute numbers are misleading.

نویسندگان

  • Christopher J Hanretty
  • Rob Ford
چکیده

As political scientists, we are not familiar with the habits of medical journals. In most analyses of voting behaviour it’s common to focus on the relative risk of voting for a party or an outcome: an analysis that focuses on absolute numbers is therefore liable to mislead. If medical journals also tend to focus on relative risks then Dorling’s analysis is also liable to mislead, notwithstanding qualifications in relation to “differential turnout and the size of the denominator population.”

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Author's reply to Hanretty and Ford.

I thank Hanretty and Ford for their comment. They make an interesting point, but I think that this has been over-made recently. The term “size of the denominator population” explains that some population groups are bigger than others and that this matters greatly. The map published with the article shows the number of voters polled in each region, adjusted to remove sampling bias. The proportio...

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • BMJ

دوره 354  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016